AGP Executive Report

US-Nigeria Counterterror Push: Nigeria says joint strikes with the U.S. have killed 175 Islamic State fighters, with the military also reporting the elimination of another senior coordinator, Abd-al Wahhab, and destruction of weapons, checkpoints and financial networks—while U.S. commanders tell Congress Africa is now the “epicenter of global terrorism.” Oyo Security Crisis: In Nigeria’s South-West, Oyo’s school abductions and killings are driving fresh pressure for stronger local policing and faster rescue operations as panic spreads. Sahel Alarm: Security experts warn jihadists are increasingly teaming up with local armed groups across the Sahel, and U.S. officials flag shrinking presence and an “intelligence black hole” risk. Lagos SDGs Drive: Lagos reaffirms data-driven governance to accelerate SDG delivery, stressing measurable impact through better inter-agency tracking. Trade & Integration: Togo scraps entry visa requirements for all African passport holders, while China’s zero-tariff deal is already boosting African exports like Kenya’s avocados. Business Recognition: UBA’s Oliver Alawuba and Niger State Governor Umar Bago were honoured at ICAN’s 2026 awards night.

Counterterror Update: Nigeria says joint US-Nigeria strikes have killed 175 Islamic State fighters in recent days, including the reported elimination of senior leaders Abu-Bakr al-Mainuki and Abd-al Wahhab, with militants’ weapons, checkpoints and “financial networks” hit across the northeast. Sahel Security Alarm: Experts warn that jihadists are increasingly teaming up with separatists and local armed groups, using Mali’s April attacks as a sign of a widening terror–insurgent convergence. France vs Africa Narrative: A fresh wave of debate follows France’s “Africa Forward” push in Nairobi, with critics arguing Paris is trying to rebrand imperial influence as it loses ground in the Sahel. Governance & Tech: Lagos reiterates data-driven SDG delivery, while a separate look at AI adoption shows smaller economies leading everyday AI use. Trade & Industry: NCCIMA hails Dangote’s industrial push, and China’s zero-tariff move is already boosting some African exports. Local Life: Kebbi Hisbah arrests a man allegedly hiding in a “Ghana Must-Go” bag at a married woman’s home.

Counterterrorism in the Lake Chad Basin: Nigeria and the US carried out fresh coordinated strikes in Borno’s Metele, killing more than 20 Islamic State militants, as the operation follows the recent killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described as ISIS’s global No.2. Security pressure on schools: The week also brought fresh alarms over child safety, with reports of 39 pupils abducted in Oyo State and earlier kidnappings in Borno—renewing calls for faster rescue and stronger local protection. Sahel reality check: A new “security map” argument says the AES model is failing across Burkina Faso, Mali and beyond, as violence keeps expanding. Digital welfare push: Lomé hosted a regional workshop on digitalizing social benefit payments, with Niger among the countries discussing interoperable systems. Industry spotlight: NCCIMA praised Dangote’s investment drive as a jobs-and-industrialisation engine for Niger and Nigeria. Health watch: Nigeria’s malaria fight remains stuck, with reports pointing to funding gaps and rising resistance.

Sahel Reality Check: A new open-source security map is being used to argue that the AES project has failed “systematically and comprehensively,” with Burkina Faso described as the worst hit and Mali’s control shrinking to pockets. Nigerian Security: Nigeria and the US say a joint operation in the Lake Chad Basin killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, ISIS’s global second-in-command, but fresh reporting also flags a separate terror shock: suspected militants abducted 42 pupils and children in Borno. Regional Response: ECOWAS lawmakers are pushing for a stronger, united Sahel counter-terror push as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger’s withdrawal from the bloc raises alarm. Business & Trade: Indoco Remedies says it has completed the transfer of its ophthalmic business to Sunways (India) across multiple African countries, while a report says AfCFTA full implementation could lift intra-Africa commerce to 53%. Politics & Governance: Nigeria’s state-police debate returns as security reform calls grow, alongside ongoing 2027 party primaries and candidate controversies.

Counterterrorism Shock: Nigeria and the US say they killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, ISIS’s global second-in-command, in a joint Lake Chad Basin operation—Trump calls it “flawless,” Tinubu says it dealt a “heavy blow,” but details remain thin and analysts warn ISIS and ISWAP can still retaliate. Security Pressure on Schools: Even as the strike was announced, reports in Borno say suspected militants abducted 42 pupils and children in Askira-Uba, reigniting fears of school-targeted kidnappings. Regional Terror Response: ECOWAS lawmakers are pushing for a stronger, united Sahel approach as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger’s security posture reshapes the fight. Business & Investment: Niger’s trade circles are upbeat about Dangote’s expansion, with NCCIMA praising the group’s pan-African investment push. Local Politics: In Niger State, an ADC governorship aspirant faces pressure to step aside over alleged N3bn rice contract fraud ahead of 2027 primaries.

Counterterrorism Shock: Nigeria and the US say they killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described as ISIS’s global second-in-command, in a joint Lake Chad Basin operation, with Trump calling it “flawlessly executed” and Tinubu confirming the strike that also hit his lieutenants. Fresh Blow to Security: Even as the raid was announced, reports emerged that suspected Islamist militants abducted 42 pupils and children in Borno’s Askira-Uba, renewing fears over school safety and weak local protection. Sahel Power Shifts: Mali’s crisis deepened as coordinated attacks by JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front exposed how fragile junta control remains, while ECOWAS lawmakers urged a stronger regional response as Sahel states’ ties with the bloc strain. Niger Politics & Justice: In Niger State, an ADC governorship aspirant faced pressure to withdraw over alleged N3bn rice contract fraud, while Boko Haram bomber Kabiru Sokoto appealed his terrorism life sentence, arguing delays were beyond his control. Local Policing: Niger State police arrested four fraud suspects in a vehicle scam and recovered 67 rustled cattle after a gun duel.

Kidnapping Crisis in Borno: Suspected Islamists abducted 42 schoolchildren in Borno, triggering a desperate search and renewed fears of retaliation after a major counterterrorism strike. ISIS Blow in Lake Chad Basin: The US and Nigeria jointly killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described by Washington as ISIS’s “second-in-command” and “most active terrorist,” in a complex overnight operation around Lake Chad; details are still emerging, but Nigeria’s military and Trump/Tinubu both framed it as a heavy blow to ISIS networks. Security Pressure Still Rising: Analysts warn one high-profile death won’t end the war, as groups across the Lake Chad Basin and Sahel may look to strike back. Politics and Faith Mobilisation: In Niger State, constituents held special prayers for Tinubu, Gov Bago and Sen. Sani Musa ahead of primaries. Cost of Living: Nigeria’s inflation stayed high at 15.69% in April, with food and transport pressures biting hardest. Nairobi France Summit Fallout: Macron’s Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi is drawing backlash, with critics questioning France’s shifting strategy and sovereignty concerns.

Counterterror Strike: The US and Nigeria say they killed Abu‑Bilal al‑Minuki, described by Washington as ISIS’s “second-in-command” and “most active terrorist,” in a joint operation tied to the Lake Chad Basin; Trump hailed a “flawlessly executed” mission while Abuja confirmed the death and said lieutenants were also hit. Sahel Security & Rights: The NHRC is pressing the Nigerian Air Force to explain recurring civilian deaths from airstrikes, warning that promises of reforms are not stopping the pattern. Migration Watch: IOM reports irregular migrant flows from Libya fell 17% in Q1 2026, even as arrivals via Libya’s western borders with Tunisia and Algeria nearly doubled. Economy & Cost of Living: Nigeria’s inflation rose to 15.69% in April as food and transport costs climbed, though month-on-month price growth slowed. France–Africa Tensions: As France and Kenya host the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi, Sahel voices are protesting France’s exclusion of AES leaders, calling it a bid to “humiliate” Sahel states.

UN Labour Agency Showdown: The US backed Russia and China at the International Labour Organization, pushing to soften language on Ukraine—an unusual split that signals bigger global labour politics. Kenya–France Sovereignty Row: Kenya ratified a defence pact with France granting French troops legal immunity in Kenyan courts, reigniting debate over accountability and constitutional sovereignty. West Africa Trade Surge: Maritime firms are expanding across West Africa as shipping reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope, boosting demand for bunkering and repairs. Nigeria Inflation Watch: Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.69% in April (from 15.38%), with food inflation at 16.06% and sharp state differences—Enugu, Kwara and Adamawa hit hardest. Roads, Money, Trust: Tinubu says a 1,000km Sokoto–Badagry road will link Benin and Ghana using local cement, while Niger State residents lament gravel-wash damage on the Suleja–Madalla road and question spending. Security & Rights: The NHRC demanded answers from the Nigerian Air Force over recurring civilian deaths tied to airstrikes, as EFCC arraigned a Kaduna fraud suspect over N328.5m.

Inflation Watch: Nigeria’s headline inflation climbed to 15.69% in April 2026 (from 15.38% in March), with food inflation at 16.06% and transport, hospitality and healthcare costs adding pressure—Enugu, Kwara and Adamawa were hit hardest. Security & Rights: The NHRC demanded answers from the Nigerian Air Force over recurring civilian deaths from airstrikes, citing markets and communities in Yobe, Niger and Zamfara—while reports of a deadly Tumfa market strike in Zamfara keep the spotlight on accountability. Anti-Crime Push: The EFCC arraigned a Kaduna-based woman over alleged N328.6m fraud, and Nigeria also arrested 327 illegal miners, including suspects linked to terrorism financing. Local Governance: Niger State says it spent N2.1bn on the Suleja–Madalla Road but gravel washouts and quality complaints persist, with another N12bn planned. Sahel Update: Mali’s forces launched airstrikes targeting a rebel alliance as the junta fights to hold power. France–Africa Politics: Nairobi’s Africa Forward Summit continues to spark backlash over France’s renewed engagement and security ties.

Sahel Security Under Fire: The NHRC has demanded answers from the Nigerian Air Force after repeated reports of civilian deaths tied to airstrikes in Yobe, Niger and Zamfara, naming Jilli Market, Shiroro Market and Tumfa Market as flashpoints. Zamfara Market Massacre Fallout: Locals and rights monitors say the Tumfa weekly market strike has killed dozens to over 100 people, while the military disputes civilian casualty claims—fueling fresh calls for independent probes. Oil Output Boost: Nigeria is nearing its OPEC quota, with crude output hitting a peak of 1.85mbpd as vandalism drops and pipeline surveillance improves. Budget Transparency Pressure: A month after Tinubu signed the N68.32trn 2026 budget, the final approved document is still not publicly available, leaving key details in limbo. Nairobi France-Africa Summit: Macron and Ruto wrapped the Africa Forward Summit, pushing investment and security cooperation—while protesters and critics question France’s motives and influence.

France-Africa Summit Fallout: Macron’s “We are the true Pan-Africanists” line is still sparking backlash as Nairobi hosts the Africa Forward Summit, with protesters arrested over a Kenya–France security deal and critics saying France is pivoting east to rebuild influence. Rights Under Fire: Nigeria’s NHRC has demanded answers from the Nigerian Air Force over repeated market airstrike deaths in Yobe, Niger and Zamfara, while the UN also urges independent probes into Nigeria and Chad strikes. Niger State Accountability: SaharaReporters alleges Niger State claimed about N1.5bn for the Suleja market road that was never built, as the project sits largely inactive. Security and Civilian Cost: In Zamfara’s Tumfa Market, locals claim the jet arrived right after terrorists entered; the military denies civilian deaths. Health and Social Support: Niger’s Etsu Nupe Foundation delivered free cataract care to 600 indigents in Bida. Trade and Crime: Southwest Nigeria is flagged as the epicentre of Africa’s counterfeit economy, while Ghana’s police seized drugs worth GH₵200,000 in an intelligence-led Madina raid.

Niger–Nigeria Security Spotlight: The UN human rights chief Volker Turk has demanded independent probes into deadly Nigerian and Chadian airstrikes in northern Nigeria, after reports of mass civilian deaths around a Zamfara market and dozens of fishermen killed in the shared marshlands; Nigeria’s Defence HQ says it has no credible evidence of civilian casualties, while senators are calling for accountability. France–Africa Reset: In Nairobi, Macron and Kenya’s Ruto closed the Africa Forward Summit with pledges of €23bn for energy, AI and agriculture, pushing “sovereign equality” and credit-cost issues onto the G7 agenda—while critics say the move is a strategic pivot beyond France’s former influence zones. Sahel Pressure: Mali remains under strain as analysts warn of a shift from insurgency to territorial control, amid ongoing attacks and political fallout. Energy & Power Moves: Nigeria’s REA and partners launched a $188m green finance facility to back 191MW of distributed solar. Legal Drama: Sarkozy faces renewed pressure in France’s Libya campaign funding appeal, with prosecutors seeking a seven-year sentence.

France–Africa Reset: Macron’s Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi wrapped with a €23bn (US$27bn) investment pitch—€14bn from French firms and €9bn from African partners—aimed at energy, AI and agriculture, while Ruto repeated “sovereignty” and pushed back against dependency. Sahel Politics: Burkina Faso’s parliament adopted new protocols to deepen the Alliance of Sahel States, giving the confederation a stronger legal footing for diplomacy, development and defense. West Africa Security: ECOWAS moved closer to a regional counterterror force, with lawmakers debating a broader “Compact of the Future of Regional Integration” as security and integration strains mount. Human Rights Pressure: The UN urged independent probes into alleged civilian deaths from Nigerian and Chadian airstrikes, including reports of a Zamfara market massacre. Niger Media Freedom: Niger’s ONC suspended nine international outlets, drawing condemnation over shrinking civic space. Courtroom Drama: French prosecutors renewed their push to send ex-President Sarkozy back to prison for seven years in the Libya campaign funding appeal.

Africa-France Reset: Macron wrapped the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi with a headline €23bn ($27bn) investment pledge, pitching “sovereign equality” and “win-win” partnerships across energy, AI and agriculture—while Kenya’s Ruto repeated “sovereignty” eight times. Local Backlash: The event also drew sharp criticism, including viral footage of Macron scolding a youth forum crowd for noise, and anti-imperial groups like PASAI pushing back on France’s renewed outreach. Niger Focus—Media Freedom: In Niger, ARTICLE 19 condemned the military-linked ONC for suspending nine international outlets, calling it a broader squeeze on civic space. Security Shock (Nigeria): In Zamfara, a military airstrike hit the Tumfa market, with reports of at least 72 dead and Amnesty saying 100+. Business & Jobs: Dangote says it’s partnering with Niger State to boost rice supply via a 10-year MoU and a new mill, aiming at jobs and food security. Governance Watch: JAMB’s registrar Oloyede is set to step down after 10 years.

France–Africa Reset in Nairobi: Emmanuel Macron and Kenya’s William Ruto pushed a “mutual respect” message at the Africa Forward Summit, unveiling €23bn in investment plans across energy, AI and agriculture—but the mood was tested by backlash, including Macron’s viral scolding of a youth forum crowd. Sahel Tensions & Sovereignty: The summit comes as France faces deeper fallout after coups in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, with critics arguing Paris is chasing influence as alliances shift. Niger State Security Row: Nigeria’s Defence HQ denied civilian deaths from drone strikes in Niger State, saying targets were bandits and claiming about 70 killed, while locals dispute casualties. Human Cost in the Sahel: Reports also highlight deadly violence beyond borders, from Zamfara market bombing claims of 72+ killed to fears of fishermen deaths after Chadian strikes around Lake Chad. Local Business Push: Dangote says it’s strengthening its partnership with Niger State, including a long-term rice supply deal and a new rice mill in progress. Politics & Leadership: A PDP chieftain backed Oyo’s Seyi Makinde as a potential 2027 presidential candidate, while ASUU warned another strike could follow if the 2025 agreement isn’t properly implemented.